No. 26/138/DKom
According to the latest Retail Sales Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia, retail sales are expected to increase in June 2024, as reflected by an uptick in the Real Sales Index (RSI) to a level of 232.8, with annual growth recorded at 4.4% (yoy). Retailers predict sales to be driven by Other Household Equipment, Clothing, as well as Food, Beverages, and Tobacco. On a monthly basis, retailers predict 2.1% (mtm) growth, thus reversing the previous month's contraction. Respondents anticipate monthly growth to stem from Clothing, Cultural and Recreational Goods, as well as Food, Beverages, and Tobacco in line with increasing public activity during the Eid-ul-Adha national religious holiday and school holidays.
In May 2024, the RSI was recorded at 228.1, with annual growth accelerating to 2.1% (yoy). The main contributors to growth in the reporting period were Clothing, Food, Beverages, and Tobacco as well as Spare Parts and Accessories. On a monthly basis, retail sales are expected to experience a 3.5% (mtm) contraction given the normalisation of public activity after the Eid-ul-Fitr festive period. A deeper contraction was offset, however, by positive retail sales growth of several commodity groups, namely Spare Parts and Accessories as well as Automotive Fuel.
In terms of prices, respondents predict milder inflationary pressures in the next 3 months (August 2024), before intensifying in the next 6 months (November 2024). This was reflected by a decrease in the Price Expectations Index (PEI) for August 2024 to 136.4 from 142.5 in the previous period. Respondents expect milder inflationary pressures in August 2024 due to the discount pricing strategies implemented by retailers to commemorate the anniversary of Indonesian independence. Meanwhile, the PEI for November 2024 increased to 144.8 from 142.0 the month earlier.
More information concerning the Retail Sales Survey is accessible via the official Bank Indonesia website.
Jakarta 9th July 2024
Communication Department
Erwin Haryono
Governor Asistant
