​Introduction to Inflation

Inflation is defined as a general increase in prices of goods and services over a period of time.  Deflation is the opposite, namely a general decrease in prices over time.


Inflation is calculated by BPS-Statistics Indonesia.  Higher prices of one or two goods do not count as inflation unless the increase spreads to (or raises the prices of) other goods.​


  

Measuring CPI

Based on the Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) 2018, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is divided into the following 11 (eleven) categories:

  • Food, beverages and tobacco
  • Clothing and footwear
  • Housing, household water, electricity and fuel supply
  • Household equipment, appliances and routine maintenance
  • Health
  • Transportation
  • Information, communication and financial services
  • Recreation, sport and culture
  • Education
  • Food service activities
  • Personal care and other services​

  

Disaggregation of Inflation

In addition to the COICOP categories, BPS-Statistics Indonesia also publishes inflation based on other categories known as an inflation disaggregation.  Inflation is disaggregated in order to produce inflation indicators that depict the influence of fundamental factors.

In Indonesia, CPI inflation is disaggregated as follows:

  1. Core Inflation, namely the persistent component within inflation movements, which is influenced by economic fundamentals, including supply-demand interaction. The external environment: exchange rate, international commodity prices. Inflation expectations.
  2. Volatile Food (VF) Inflation: Inflation that is predominantly influenced by shocks in the foodstuff category, such as harvests, natural disruptions or domestic and international food price developments.
  3. Administered Prices (AP) Inflation​: Inflation that is mainly influenced by government price policy on subsidised fuel, electricity rates, transportation fares and so on​.

Determinants of Inflation

Inflation is driven by supply-side pressures (cost-push inflation), demand-side pressures (demand-pull inflation) as well as inflation expectations. Cost-push inflation factors include exchange rate depreciation, the impact of imported inflation, especially from trading partners, higher administered prices as well as negative supply shocks due to natural disasters and disruptions in the distribution chain. On the other hand, demand-pull inflation factors include high demand for goods and services relative to supply. In a macroeconomic context, demand-pull inflation is a condition illustrated by real output exceeding potential output or aggregate demand exceeding economic capacity. Meanwhile, inflation expectations are affected by the behaviour of the public and economic actors in terms of taking economic decisions based on expected inflation. Therefore, inflation expectations are adaptive or forward looking.


Importance of Price Stability

Low and stable inflation is a prerequisite for sustainable economic growth that will ultimately ameliorate public prosperity. Controlling inflation is, therefore, critical considering that high and unstable inflation has an adverse socioeconomic impact. First, high inflation persistently erodes real income over time, leading to a deterioration in living standards and adversely affecting all, particularly those towards the bottom of the pyramid. Second, unstable inflation creates uncertainty amongst economic actors in terms of their ability to make decisions. Empirical experience shows that unstable inflation undermines public decision-making in terms of consumption, investment and production, thus impeding economic growth. Third, a higher rate of domestic inflation compared with neighbouring countries will lead to uncompetitive domestic interest rates and intensify currency pressures on the rupiah. Fourth, price stability plays an important role in maintaining financial system stability.


​Inflation Target

Through its mandate as stipulated in the Bank Indonesia Act, Bank Indonesia's overriding objective is to create and maintain rupiah stability, maintain the stability of the payment system as well as preserve financial system stability to support sustainable economic growth. Rupiah stability contains two salient aspects, namely stability in relation to goods and services as well as stability against other currencies.


The first aspect is reflected in the interest rate, while the second aspect is reflected in the exchange rate against foreign currencies. Formulation of these objectives explicitly clarifies the targets to be achieved by Bank Indonesia and also delineates Bank Indonesia's responsibilities. Consequently, attainment of the objectives is simple to measure. In pursuit of its goal, Bank Indonesia understands that stimulating economic growth and controlling inflation must be aligned for optimal and sustainable results in the long term.


Inflation Control

Bank Indonesia monetary policy aims to manage price pressures from aggregate demand (demand management) relative to supply-side conditions. Monetary policy does not respond to transient inflation spikes caused by temporary shocks that will fade over time. Meanwhile, inflation is also influenced by supply-side factors and shocks, such as global oil price hikes, failed harvests and floods. Based on the weights in the CPI basket, the components of inflation influenced by supply-side factors and shocks are represented by volatile food and administered prices, accounting for around 40% of CPI.


Similarly, Bank Indonesia's ability to control inflation is comparatively restrained in the event of major shocks, such as during the fuel price hikes in 2005 and 2008, which triggered significant inflation spikes. Considering that inflation is influenced by shocks, attainment of the inflation target requires cooperation and coordination between the Government and Bank Indonesia through integrated macroeconomic policy, encompassing fiscal policy, monetary policy and sectoral policy. Furthermore, the vulnerability of inflation in Indonesia to supply-side shocks necessitates a specific policy response.


At the technical level, coordination between the Government and Bank Indonesia is facilitated through establishment of a Coordinated Inflation Target Setting, Monitoring and Control Team (TPI) in 2005. The members include Bank Indonesia and relevant government ministries, including the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Home Affairs, Ministry of Trade, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Transportation, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, National Development Planning Agency, Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Public Works and Housing, Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises, Cabinet Secretary and National Police of the Republic of Indonesia. Acknowledging the importance of such coordination, TPI was expanded to the regional level in 2008. Moving forward, the Government and Bank Indonesia expect more effective coordination with the support of the central and regional TPI in the pursuit of low and stable inflation towards sustainable economic growth.


Setting the Inflation Target

The inflation target is the rate of inflation that must be achieved by Bank Indonesia in coordination with the Government. In the Cooperation Agreement between Bank Indonesia and the Ministry of Finance, setting the inflation target is discussed collectively at high-level coordination meetings in the TPIP forum and subsequently set by the Government for a specific period through a Minister of Finance Regulation (PMK). Based on PMK No. 31 of 2024, dated 16th May 2024, concerning the Inflation Target for 2025, 2026 and 2027, the Government set the inflation target for 2025-2027 at 2.5%, 2.5% and 2.5% respectively within a ±1% corridor.


The inflation target is published on the official Bank Indonesia website as well as the websites of other government institutions, including the Ministry of Finance, Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs as well as the National Development Planning Agency.