No. 26/196/DKom
According to the latest Retail Sales Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia, respondents predict retail sales to increase in August 2024, as reflected by 5.8% (yoy) annual growth in the Real Sales Index (RSI) to a level of 215.9. Retailers expect most commodity groups to drive retail sales in the reporting period, led by Cultural and Recreational Goods, followed by Automotive Fuel and Clothing. On a monthly basis, respondents anticipate 1.6% (yoy) retail sales growth in August 2024 after contracting 7.2% (mtm) the month earlier, primarily boosted by Food, Beverages, and Tobacco, Information and Communication Equipment, as well as Other Household Equipment, as demand increases ahead of the Independence Day celebrations for the Republic of Indonesia, supported by discount pricing strategies implemented by retailers.
In July 2024, the RSI increased 4.5% (yoy) to a level of 212.4, with annual growth primarily on the back of Food, Beverages, and Tobacco as well as Clothing, with retail sales of Spare Parts and Accessories and Automotive Fuels maintaining positive growth. On a monthly basis, retail sales contracted 7.2% (mtm) as demand normalised after the Eid-ul-Adha national religious holiday. Retailers confirmed that several commodity groups maintained growth, thus offsetting a deeper retail sales decline, namely Clothing and Automotive Fuel, while retail sales of Cultural and Recreational Goods experienced moderation.
In terms of prices, respondents predict a build-up of inflationary pressures in the next 3 and 6 months (October 2024 and January 2025). This was indicated by respective increases in the Price Expectations Index (PEI) for October 2024 and January 2025 to 141.3 and 166.7 from 134.5 and 161.0 in line with historical trends over the past three years.
More information concerning the Retail Sales Survey is accessible via the official Bank Indonesia website.
Jakarta 10th September 2024
Communication Department
Erwin Haryono
Assistant Governor
