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Respondents of the latest Retail Sales Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia predict annual retail sales to increase in February 2023, as reflected by faster 2.6% (yoy) growth in the Real Sales Index (RSI) to a level of 205.2, after languishing in a contractionary phase the month earlier. Positive retail sales performance in the reporting period is driven by Food, Beverages and Tobacco as well as Clothing, which accelerated compared with conditions one month earlier. On a monthly basis, retailers expect improving retail sales performance despite remaining in contractionary territory at 1.4% (mtm), with the improvements primarily attributable to Information and Communication Equipment as well as Clothing in line with the promotional strategies employed by retailers to stoke demand.
In January 2023, the Real Sales Index (RSI) experienced a 0.6% (yoy) contraction to a level of 208.2. A deeper contraction was offset, however, by positive growth of Food, Beverages and Tobacco as well as Clothing. The respondents also confirmed a monthly retail sales contraction of 4.4% (mtm) given the normalization of demand after the Christmas national religious holiday and New Year festive period. All commodity groups recorded contractions, except Spare Parts and Accessories as well as Automotive Fuel, which maintained positive growth.
In terms of prices, respondents anticipate a build-up of inflationary pressures in April 2023 in response to higher prices during Ramadan and Eid-ul-Fitr before subsiding in July 2023, as indicated by a bump in the 3-month Price Expectations Index (PEI) to 145.1 from 139.3 and a decrease in the 6-month PEI to 133.5 from 138.3.
More information concerning the Retail Sales Survey is accessible via the official Bank Indonesia website.
Jakarta, 9th March 2023
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