No. 26/220/DKom
According to the latest Retail Sales Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia, retail sales are expected to continue growing in September 2024 as reflected by an uptick in the Real Sales Index (RSI) to a level of 210.5, with annual growth recorded at 4.7% (yoy). Retailers predict sales to be driven by several commodity groups, including the Automotive Fuel, Parts and Accessories, as well as Clothing. On a monthly basis, retail sales are expected to experience a 2.5% (mtm) contraction, lower than the growth in the previous month which was recorded at 1.7% (mtm). Respondents anticipate monthly contraction in line with lower public demand due to the end of the discount program implemented by retailers at the Independence Day celebrations for the Republic of Indonesia. A deeper contraction was offset, however, by positive retail sales growth of several commodity groups, namely Spare Parts and Accessories, Automotive Fuel, Other Household Equipment, as well as Information and Communication Equipment.
In August 2024, RSI was recorded an increase at 215.9 with annual growth accelerating to 5.8% (yoy), higher than 4.5% (yoy) growth in the previous month. The main contributors to growth in the reporting period were Food, Beverages, and Tobacco as well as Automotive Fuel. On a monthly basis, retailers predict 1.7% (mtm) growth, thus reversing the 7.2% (mtm) contraction in the previous month. Respondents anticipate monthly growth to stem from Food, Beverages, and Tobacco, Information and Communication Equipment, as well as Other Household Equipment in line with increasing demand during the Independence Day celebrations for the Republic of Indonesia event supported by the implementation of discount strategies by retailers.
In terms of prices, respondents predict milder inflationary pressures in the next 3 and 6 months (November 2024 and February 2025). This was reflected by a decrease in the Price Expectation Index (PEI) in November 2024 and February 2025 which were recorded at 134.3 and 155.9 respectively, lower than the previous period which was recorded at 141.3 and 166.7. Respondents expect milder inflationary pressures supported by smooth distribution and sufficient availability of goods.
More information concerning the Retail Sales Survey is accessible via the official Bank Indonesia website.
Jakarta 9th October 2024
Communication Department
Ramdan Denny Prakoso
Executive Director