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Respondents of the latest Retail Sales Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia predict retail sales to increase in November 2023, as reflected by 2.9% (yoy) growth in the Real Sales Index (RSI) to a level of 209.4. Retailers expect Other Household Equipment, Clothing as well as Food, Beverages, and Tobacco to drive retail sales in the reporting period. On a monthly basis, respondents forecast retail sales growth of 0.9% (mtm) due to stronger sales of Other Household Equipment as well as Spare Parts and Accessories. Meanwhile, respondents anticipate positive yet moderating monthly retail sales growth of Information and Communication Equipment as well as Food, Beverages, and Tobacco in line with less conducive weather conditions.
In October 2023, the RSI was recorded at a level of 207.5, with annual growth of 2.4% (yoy) driven by stronger retail sales of Other Household Equipment as well as Food, Beverages and Tobacco. On a monthly basis, retail sales growth accelerated to 3.2% (mtm) after experiencing a contraction one month earlier. The turnaround was primarily attributable to Information and Communication Equipment, Food, Beverages and Tobacco as well as Automotive Fuels on the back of domestic demand, preparations for the Christmas and New Year festive period as well as uninterrupted distribution.
In terms of prices, the Price Expectations Index (PEI) increases to 133.1 and 137.8 from 131.2 and 133.0 one month earlier. Respondents predict higher prices in April 2024 due to a seasonal spike in price during the holy fasting month of Ramadan and Eid-ul-Fitr.
More information concerning the Retail Sales Survey is accessible via the official Bank Indonesia website.
Jakarta, 8 December 2023
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