No. 23/10/DKom

Based on the latest Retail Sales Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia, retail sales achieved further improvements in November 2020 with a shallower -1.2% (mtm) contraction recorded in the Real Sales Index (RSI) compared with -5.3% (mtm) in October 2020.  Most commodity groups recorded gains in the reporting period, with Clothing, Automotive Fuels as well as Spare Parts and Accessories posting positive sales performance.  Annually, retail sales in November 2020 retreated -16.3% (yoy), deteriorating slightly from -14.9% (yoy) one month earlier, primarily held back by Information and Communication Equipment as well as Other Household Equipment.

In December 2020, respondents predicted a further uptick of monthly retail sales, with the RSI moving to positive 2.9% (mtm) on the back of increasing demand during the Christmas and New Year festive period. Retailers expected positive growth across all commodity groups, particularly Information and Communication Equipment as well as Other Household Equipment. Annually, respondents predicted retail sales in December 2020 to remain in a contractionary phase at -20.7% (yoy).

In terms of prices, respondents predicted a build-up of inflationary pressures in the next three months (February 2021) due to religious celebrations and distribution disruptions caused by inclement weather before dissipating in the next six months (May 2021) in line with maintained supply and distribution during the Ramadan and Eid-ul-Fitr period.  This was confirmed by an increase in the 3-month Price Expectations Index (PEI) to 150.4 from 139.8 and a decline in the 6-month PEI to 161.7 from 163.9.

Head of Communication Department
Erwin Haryono
Executive Director
Information on Bank Indonesia
Tel. 021 - 131, e-mail: bicara@bi.go.id