No.28/55/DKom
Fitch Ratings (Fitch) has affirmed the Republic of Indonesia's sovereign credit rating at BBB and revised the outlook to Negative on 4 March 2026. In its report, Fitch stated that the affirmation of Indonesia's BBB rating reflects the country's track record in maintaining macroeconomic stability, supported by solid medium-term growth prospects, a relatively low government debt-to-GDP ratio, and adequate external resilience. On the other hand, the outlook revision was influenced by Fitch's view of rising policy uncertainty as well as concerns regarding the consistency and credibility of Indonesia's policies.
Responding to Fitch's decision, Governor of Bank Indonesia Perry Warjiyo stated, “The affirmation of Indonesia's BBB rating reflects global confidence in the country's strong economic fundamentals. The outlook revision is considered not to reflect a weakening of Indonesia's economic fundamentals. Indonesia's economic outlook remains strong and resilient. The strength of Indonesia's economy is reflected in solid domestic economic growth amid heightened global uncertainty, well-controlled inflation including low core inflation, and a Rupiah exchange rate that continues to be strengthened through exchange rate stabilization policies in the offshore NDF market as well as spot and DNDF transactions in the domestic market. Financial system stability also remains well maintained, supported by ample liquidity, strong banking capital levels, and low credit risk. In addition, the continued expansion of payment system digitalization, supported by stable infrastructure and a sound industry structure, also contributes to economic growth."
Looking ahead, Bank Indonesia projects that Indonesia's medium-term economic growth outlook will remain solid and show an upward trend, supported by well-controlled inflation. In 2026, economic growth is projected to be in the range of 4.9–5.7% and to increase further in 2027, with inflation remaining within the target range. Indonesia's external resilience is also expected to remain strong amid global volatility, with the Balance of Payments remaining sound and supported by solid trade balance performance. At the end of January 2026, Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves remained high at USD 154.6 billion, equivalent to 6.3 months of imports or 6.1 months of imports and government external debt servicing, and well above the international adequacy standard of around three months of imports. The Balance of Payments in 2026 is projected to remain sound, with the current account deficit expected to stay low in the range of 0.9–0.1% of GDP.
Bank Indonesia will continue to strengthen its policy mix to maintain macroeconomic and financial system stability while promoting sustainable economic growth amid heightened global uncertainty. This will be carried out in close synergy with the Financial System Stability Committee (KSSK) and the Government's Asta Cita Program, as well as continued coordination with the Government to strengthen policy communication to maintain market confidence.
Jakarta, 4th March 2026
Communication Department
Ramdan Denny Prakoso
Executive Director
