No.28/37/DKom
According to the latest Retail Sales Survey, retailers expect sales growth to accelerate in January 2026. Respondents predict 7.9% (yoy) growth of the Real Sales Index (RSI) in January 2026, supported by Cultural and Recreational Goods, Food, Beverages and Tobacco, as well as Clothing. On a monthly basis, respondents predict a 0.6% (mtm) retail sales contraction in January 2026 in line with the normalisation of private consumption after the Christmas and New Year festive period. Notwithstanding, the contraction predicted in January 2026 is shallower than the 4.7% (mtm) decline recorded in the same period of the previous year.
In December 2025, annual RSI growth was recorded at 3.5% (yoy), primarily underpinned by sales growth of Spare Parts and Accessories, Food, Beverages and Tobacco as well as Cultural and Recreational Goods. On a monthly basis, retail sales in December 2025 posted 3.1% (mtm) growth, up from 1.5% (mtm) the month earlier. This was driven by most commodity groups, particularly Information and Communication Equipment, Cultural and Recreational Goods, Spare Parts and Accessories as well as Food, Beverages and Tobacco due to increasing demand during the Christmas and New Year festive period.
In terms of prices, respondents predict a build-up of inflationary pressures in the next 3 and 6 months, namely in March and June 2026. This was reflected by respective increases in the Price Expectations Index (PEI) in March and June 2026 to 175.7 and 156.3 from 168.6 and 154.5 previously, driven by expectations of higher prices during Eid-ul-Fitr 1447 H.
More information concerning the Retail Sales Survey is accessible via the official Bank Indonesia website.
Jakarta 10th February 2026
Communication Department
Ramdan Denny Prakoso
Executive Director
