No. 27/5/DKom
Respondents of the latest Retail Sales Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia expected retail sales performance to increase in December 2024. This was reflected by stronger 1.0% (yoy) growth of the Real Sales Index (RSI) to a level of 220.3 in December 2024. Retailers anticipate Spare Parts and Accessories as well as Food, Beverages, and Tobacco to be the main drivers of retail sales growth in the reporting period. On a monthly basis, respondents forecast 5.1% (mtm) growth of retail sales in December 2024 after experiencing a 0.4% (mtm) contraction the month earlier, with the highest growth of commodity groups led by Clothing, followed by Food, Beverages, and Tobacco as well as Spare Parts and Accessories as the main contributors on the back of increasing private demand ahead of the Christmas and New Year festive period.
At a level of 209.7, RSI growth moderated to 0.9% (yoy) in November 2024 from 1.5% (yoy) in October 2024. This was influenced by retail sales growth in November 2024 mainly driven by Automotive Fuel, Spare Parts and Accessories, as well as Food, Beverages, and Tobacco. On a monthly basis, retail sales in November2024 experienced a 0.4% (mtm) contraction after declining 0.01% (mtm) one month earlier. Most commodity groups recorded a contraction in the reporting period, particularly Cultural and Recreational Goods, Spare Parts and Accessories, as well as Food, Beverages, and Tobacco in response to lower private demand given unfavorable seasonal/weather conditions that restrained community activity. Nevertheless, retail sales of Information and Communication Equipment as well as Automotive Fuel maintained growth and supported retail sales performance in the reporting period.
In terms of prices, respondents predict a build-up of inflationary pressures in the next 3 months (February 2025) and milder price pressures in the next 6 months (May 2025). This was reflected by an increase in the Price Expectations Index (PEI) for February 2025 to 160.2 from 157.8 previously in line with the historical average over the past three years of higher prices ahead of Ramadan. In contrast, the PEI for May 2025 decreased to 151.1 form 165.4 in response to the normalization of demand after Eid-ul-Fitr.
More information concerning the Retail Sales Survey is accessible via the official Bank Indonesia website.
Jakarta 10th January 2025
Communication Department
Ramdan Denny Prakoso
Executive Director
