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According to the latest Retail Sales Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia, respondents predict positive retail sales growth in November 2022. This was reflected by 1.6% (yoy) growth in the Real Sales Index (RSI) to a level of 204.2 in the reporting period. Retailers expect persistently strong growth of Clothing, Cultural and Recreational Goods as well as Food, Beverages and Tobacco to support retail sales. On a monthly basis, respondents predict 0.7% (mtm) retail sales growth despite moderation affecting Automotive Fuel, Food, Beverages and Tobacco as well as Information and Communication Equipment on compressed demand and less conducive seasonal/weather conditions.
The Retail Sales Survey indicates faster monthly retail sales growth in October 2022, with the Real Sales Index (RSI) accelerating to 2.3% (mtm) after experiencing a 1.8% (mtm) contraction in the previous period. Broad improvements were reported across all commodity groups, supported by the smooth distribution of Automotive Fuel, discount programs offered by several retailers in terms of Clothing as well as a narrower contraction impacting Spare Parts and Accessories. Annually, retail sales performance was recorded in positive territory at 3.7% (yoy), with an index reading of 202.7 in October 2022. This was supported by improving sales of Information and Communication Equipment against a backdrop of declining sales of Other Household Equipment as well as Spare Parts and Accessories, coupled with moderation affecting Clothing and Automotive Fuels.
In terms of prices, respondents anticipate milder inflationary pressures in January 2023 before increasing slightly in April 2023 in line with sales projections. The 3-month Price Expectations Index (PEI) for January 2023 decreased to 138.0 from 146.0, contrasting the higher 6-month PEI from 140.7 to 140.8 on rising prices during the Eid-ul-Fitr national religious holidays.
More information concerning the Retail Sales Survey is accessible via the official Bank Indonesia website.
Jakarta, 9th December 2022
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