
The BI Board of Governors Meeting agreed on 20th and 21st September
2021 to hold the BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate at 3.50%, while also
maintaining the Deposit Facility (DF) rates at 2.75% and Lending
Facility (LF) rates at 4.25%. The decision is consistent with
the need to maintain exchange rates and financial system stability amid
projected low inflation and efforts to revive economic growth. In
addition, Bank Indonesia continues to optimise its policy mix towards
maintaining macroeconomic and financial system stability, while
supporting national economic recovery efforts through the following
measures:
- Maintaining rupiah exchange rate policy to preserve
stability in line with the currency's fundamental value and market
mechanisms.
- Continuing the strengthening strategy for monetary
operations to reinforce the effectiveness of the accommodative monetary
policy stance.
- Strengthening prime lending rate (PLR)
transparency policy by deepening the assessment of PLR transmission to
interest rates on new loans by loan type and bank group (Appendix).
- Accelerating
the expansion of QRIS merchants, targeting markets, shopping malls and
places of worship, to increase digital economic and financial ecosystem
integration, while simultaneously supporting health protocols.
- Strengthening
policy coordination with the Government in relation to trialling social
aid program (bansos) digitalisation and government transaction
electronification to increase government spending realisation.
- Promoting
trade and investment as well as continuing to socialise the use of
local currency settlement (LCS) in conjunction with other relevant
institutions. In September and October 2021, Bank Indonesia will
promote trade and investment in Japan, China and UK.
Bank
Indonesia continues to strengthen policy synergy with the Government
and Financial System Stability Committee to maintain financial system
stability and stimulate lending to the corporate sector and other
priority sectors, thus boosting economic growth and exports, while
increasing economic and financial inclusion.
The
global economic recovery remains intact, though the recent surge of
Covid-19 cases and disruptions to the supply chain in several countries
demand attention. The pace of economic recovery in the latter
half of 2021 is slower than previously expected in the US, China and
Japan. In contrast, economic recoveries in Europe and Latin America are
accelerating, thus underpinning global economic growth. Several early
indicators in August 2021, including the Manufacturing Purchasing
Managers Index (PMI) and retail sales, remain solid despite the PMI
Suppliers' Delivery Times Index pointing to transportation delays.
Consequently, Bank Indonesia's global economic growth projection for
2021 remains at 5.8%. World trade volume and international commodity
prices have posted strong gains, thus supporting the export outlook in
developing economies. Global financial market uncertainty has not fully
subsided, impacted by corporate default in China's financial markets,
the US Federal Reserve's tapering policy and rising Covid-19 cases.
Such conditions are influencing global investor preferences concerning
portfolio flows to developing economies.
At home, the domestic economy is recovering gradually.
The national economic recovery is influenced by greater public mobility
after the Government relaxed virus-related restrictions in response to a
flattening of the Covid-19 curve. In August and the beginning of
September 2021, domestic economic activity gradually improved after
experiencing moderation in July 2021. Such dynamics were captured in
several early indicators, including retail sales, consumer expectations,
Manufacturing PMI as well as payment transactions through the National
Clearing System (SKNBI) and Bank Indonesia – Real Time Gross Settlement
(BI-RTGS) system. Concerning the external sector, exports continue to
increase on the back of solid demand in Indonesia's main trading
partners. Moving forward, the economic recovery is expected to endure
given the faster vaccination rollout, persistently strong export
performance, reopening of more priority sectors and ongoing policy
stimuli. Therefore, the national economic outlook for 2021 remains in
line with Bank Indonesia's own projection of 3.5-4.3%.
Indonesia's Balance of Payments (BOP) is predicted to remain solid.
The current account is expected to improve, supported by a persistent
goods trade surplus. Indonesia recorded its highest trade surplus since
December 2006 at USD4.7 billion in August 2021, primarily boosted by a
surge of major export commodities, such as crude palm oil (CPO), coal,
iron and steel as well as metal ore, despite higher imports stoked by
the domestic economic recovery. Meanwhile, foreign capital inflows as
portfolio investment have been maintained, recording a net inflow of
USD1.5 billion in the period from July to 17th September
2021. The position of reserve assets at the end of August 2021
increased to USD144.8 billion, equivalent to 9.1 months of imports or
8.7 months of imports and servicing government external debt, which is
well above the 3-month international adequacy standard. Looking ahead,
Bank Indonesia projects a low and manageable current account deficit in
2021 at approximately 0.6-1.4% of GDP, thus supporting external sector
resilience in Indonesia.
The rupiah is regaining lost value despite elevated global financial market uncertainty. As of 20th
September 2021, the rupiah appreciated 0.94% on average and by 0.18%
(ptp) on the August 2021 level. The stronger rupiah is supported by the
positive perception of investors concerning the domestic economic
recovery, maintained supply of foreign exchange domestically and
stabilisation measures implemented by Bank Indonesia. As of 20th
September 2021, therefore, the rupiah depreciated 1.35% (ytd) compared
with the level recorded at the end of 2020, which is lower than the
depreciation experienced in several other peer countries, including
Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. Bank Indonesia continues to
strengthen rupiah exchange rate stabilisation measures in line with the
currency's fundamental value and market mechanisms through effective
monetary operations and adequate market liquidity.
Inflation remains low, thereby reinforcing economic stability.
In August 2021, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded 0.03% (mtm)
inflation, thus bringing inflation for the calendar year to 0.84%
(ytd). Annually, CPI inflation increased to 1.59% (yoy) from 1.52%
(yoy) the month earlier. Core inflation is low and under control in
line with compressed domestic demand, maintained exchange rate stability
and consistent Bank Indonesia policy to anchor inflation expectations
to the target corridor. Inflationary pressures on volatile food and
administered prices intensified slightly in response to higher cooking
oil prices in line with the international CPO price amid adequate goods
supply, as well as the ongoing transmission of higher tobacco duties.
Bank Indonesia is firmly committed to maintaining price stability and
strengthening policy coordination with the central and regional
governments through national and regional inflation control teams (TPI
and TPID) to maintain headline inflation within the 3.0%±1% target in
2021 and 2022.
Liquidity
conditions remain loose in line with Bank Indonesia's accommodative
monetary policy stance and the impact of synergy between Bank Indonesia
and the Government to support the national economic recovery.
Bank Indonesia has injected liquidity through quantitative easing to the
banking industry totalling Rp122.30 trillion in 2021 (as of 17th
September 2021). In addition, Bank Indonesia continues to purchase SBN
in the primary market to fund the 2021 State Revenue and Expenditure
Budget (APBN), totalling Rp139.84 trillion (as of 17th
September 2021), with Rp64.38 trillion through primary auction and
Rp75.46 trillion through greenshoe options (GSO). The expansive
monetary policy stance supports loose liquidity conditions in the
banking industry, as reflected in August 2021 by a ratio of liquid
assets to deposits of 32.67% and deposit growth of 8.81% (yoy).
Liquidity in the economy has also increased, as indicated by narrow (M1)
and broad (M2) money supply aggregates, which grew 9.8% (yoy) and 6.9%
(yoy) respectively in the reporting period.
Bank
Indonesia's decision to maintain a low policy rate, coupled with loose
liquidity conditions in the banking industry, have prompted lower
lending rates despite ongoing rigidity. In the markets, the
overnight interbank rate and 1-month deposit rate have fallen 55bps and
205bps respectively since July 2020 to 2.82% and 3.43% in July 2021. In
the credit market, the banking industry continues to lower prime
lending rates (PLR) despite rigidity, thus falling from 8.82% in June
2021 to 8.81% in July 2021. On the other hand, banks have begun to
reduce interest rates on new loans in line with lower risk perception
after the Government started to relax public mobility restrictions.
Bank Indonesia expects the banking industry to continue lowering lending
rates as part of joint efforts to stimulate lending to the corporate
sector.
Financial system resilience is still solid despite further opportunities to revive the bank intermediation function.
The Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) in the banking industry remained high
in July 2021 at 24.57%, accompanied by persistently low NPL ratios of
3.35% (gross) and 1.09% (nett). Buoyed by growing corporate demand for
loans in response to greater public mobility, lower interest rates on
new loans and lower lending standards, the bank intermediation function
expanded 1.16% (yoy) in August 2021, driven by consumer loans and
working capital loans that grew 2.84% (yoy) and 1.27% (yoy)
respectively. Such developments are indicative of increasing
consumption, demand for residential property in particular, along with
corporate sector recovery. In addition, MSME loans grew 2.70% in August
2021. Therefore, Bank Indonesia projects credit growth in 2021 in the
4-6% range.
Bank Indonesia
continues to bolster digital economic and financial ecosystem
integration by strengthening payment system policy and policy
coordination with other relevant authorities. Growth of
digital economic and financial transactions in August 2021 continued to
accelerate given greater public acceptance and growing public preference
towards online retail as well as the expansion of digital payments and
digital banking. Expansive growth was primarily reflected in the value
of electronic money and digital banking transactions. The value of
e-money transactions climbed 43.66% (yoy) to Rp24.8 trillion and the
value of digital banking transactions soared 61.80% (yoy) to Rp3,468.4
trillion. Meanwhile, the value of card-based payment transactions using
ATM cards, debit cards and credit cards stood at Rp633 trillion, with
growth of 5.85% (yoy). The number of QRIS merchants continues to
expand, growing 120.22% (yoy) to reach 10.4 million merchants in the
middle of September 2021. On the cash side, currency in circulation in
August 2021 reached Rp843.9 trillion, up 10.73% (yoy). Bank Indonesia
continues to strengthen its cash services and distribution strategy amid
restrictions on public activity to meet public and banking industry
demand for currency.