Downstreaming has become one of Indonesia's most strategic avenues for lifting the value of its agricultural sector, yet evidence on its real impacts and constraints remains limited. This study evaluates the downstreaming performance of key commodity sectors, measures its effects on economic outcomes, identifies binding constraints, and formulates policy strategies to accelerate downstream development. Using a mixed-method approach, the analysis integrates quantitative techniques based on BPS, UN Comtrade, and IBS data with qualitative insights from focus group discussions and field surveys conducted in major production centers. The quantitative component includes RSCA&TBI analysis, trade trend analysis, spatial productivity assessments, panel regressions to estimate the impacts of

downstreaming on exports, revenues, productivity, and input imports, and a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to capture macroeconomic and regional effects. The CGE simulations show that productivity gains in fisheries, maize, and salt increase real GDP, real wages, investment, and export competitiveness, with stronger impacts in core producing provinces. The qualitative findings reveal persistent bottlenecks in production factors, institutional coordination, infrastructure, financing access, and market linkage. Based on this diagnosis, the study develops commodity-specific business model recommendations to strengthen downstreaming pathways. Overall, the results provide a comprehensive foundation for designing more effective downstreaming strategies that enhance competitiveness, improve food security, and promote more inclusive regional economic growth in Indonesia.

Keywords: Agricultural Downstreaming, Fisheries, Maize, Salt, Productivity, Food

Security, Downstreaming Policy