No. 24/202/DKom Based
on data published by BPS-Statistics Indonesia, the Consumer Price Index
(CPI) in July 2022 recorded 0.64% (mtm) inflation, up slightly from
0.61% (mtm) one month earlier. The monthly uptick primarily
stemmed from administered prices, contrasting milder inflationary
pressures on volatile food and low core inflation. Annually, therefore,
CPI inflation in July 2022 stood at 4.94% (yoy), increasing from 4.35%
(yoy) the month earlier. In 2022, CPI inflation is projected above the
upper bound of the target corridor before returning to 3.0%±1% in 2023.
Bank Indonesia will remain vigilant of the risks posed by rising
inflation expectations and core inflation moving forward, while
strengthening the monetary policy mix as required. Furthermore, Bank
Indonesia will also continue to strengthen policy coordination with the
Government and other relevant institutions through the central and
regional inflation task forces (TPIP and TPID) to manage inflation
expectations from the supply side, boost production and safeguard food
security.
Core inflation was maintained low at 0.28% (mtm) in July 2022, as well as recorded at 0.19% (mtm) in June 2022.
The moderate increase was primarily driven by motor vehicles and house
rentals on the back of greater community mobility. Further increases
were offset, however, by price corrections affecting gold jewellery in
response to the international gold price. Annually, core inflation in
July 2022 remained low at 2.86% (yoy), despite climbing marginally from
2.63% (yoy) one month earlier. Low core inflation was maintained with
the support of policy consistency by Bank Indonesia to anchor inflation
expectations.
Volatile food (VF) in July 2022 experienced lower 1.41% (mtm) inflation compared with 2.51% (mtm) in the previous period.
The main contributors to milder inflationary pressures on volatile food
were cooking oil, purebred chicken eggs, garlic and vegetables. In
contrast, the prices of various chili varieties, shallots and fresh fish
increased in response to supply-side disruptions caused by heavy
rainfall at several production hubs. Annually, VF inflation increased to
11.47% (yoy) in the reporting period from 10.07% (yoy) the month
earlier.
Inflationary pressures on administered prices (AP) in July 2022 increased to 1.17% (mtm) from 0.27% (mtm) in June 2022.
Airfares, household fuel and filtered clove cigarettes edged up AP
inflation in the reporting period in line with increasing air mobility
and aviation fuel prices caused by spiralling global energy prices,
adjustments to non-subsidised energy prices and the ongoing transmission
of tobacco excise duty to selling prices. Annually, administered
prices recorded 6.51% (yoy) inflation in July 2022, up from 5.33% (yoy)
the month earlier.
Jakarta, 1st August 2022
Head of Communication Department
Erwin Haryono
Executive Director