No.23/332/DKom The BI Board of Governors Meeting agreed on 15th and 16th December2021
to hold the BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate at 3.50%, while also maintaining
the Deposit Facility (DF) rates at 2.75% and Lending Facility (LF)
rates at 4.25%. The decision is consistent with the need to
maintain exchange rate and financial system stability amid projected low
inflation and efforts to revive economic growth. In addition, Bank
Indonesia continues to optimise its policy mix towards maintaining
macroeconomic and financial system stability, while supporting national
economic recovery efforts through the following measures:
- Confirming the Bank Indonesia Policy Mix direction for 2022 as conveyed at the 2021 Bank Indonesia Annual Meeting held on 24th
November 2021. Monetary policy in 2022 will be oriented towards
maintaining stability, while pro-growth macroprudential and payment
system policies will focus on driving economic growth together with
money market deepening as well as an inclusive and green economy and
finance.
- Maintaining rupiah exchange rate policy to preserve
stability in line with the currency's fundamental value and market
mechanisms.
- Continuing the strengthening strategy for monetary
operations to reinforce the effectiveness of the accommodative monetary
policy stance.
- Strengthening prime lending rate (PLR)
transparency in the banking industry by deepening the assessment of
prime lending rate spread against term deposit rates by bank group
(Appendix).
- Maintaining the Rp1 fee charged by Bank Indonesia to
banks using the National Clearing System (SKNBI) and Rp2,900 maximum
charged by banks to their customers, which was due to end on 31st December 2021, until 30th June 2022 to support the national economic recovery.
- Targeting
15 million new QRIS users in 2022 to boost QRIS transactions through
coordination with Payment Service Providers (PSP) and relevant
government ministries/agencies.
- Promoting trade and investment
as well as continuing to socialise Local Currency Settlement (LCS) in
conjunction with other relevant institutions. In December 2021 and
January 2022, promotional activities will be organised in China and
Finland.
Bank
Indonesia will also continue to strengthen policy coordination with the
Government and Financial System Stability Committee to maintain
financial system stability and revive bank lending to the corporate and
priority sectors, thereby helping to catalyse economic growth and
exports as well as economic and financial inclusion.
Global
economic growth in 2021 is consistent with projections and expected to
persist in 2022 despite ongoing supply chain disruptions and increasing
cases of Covid-19. Less divergent global economic growth is
expected moving forward, with economic gains in Europe, Japan and India
accompanying the recoveries in the United States and China. Such
developments have been made possible by higher vaccination rates, policy
stimuli and a gradual recovery of business activity. Several economic
indicators in November 2021, including the Purchasing Managers Index
(PMI), consumer confidence and retail sales, pointed to an ongoing
recovery, despite a sluggish PMI Suppliers' Delivery Times Index. Bank
Indonesia, therefore, projects global economic growth in 2021 at 5.7%
and 4.4% in 2022. World trade volume and international commodity prices
continue to rise, thereby supporting the export outlook in developing
economies. Global financial market uncertainty continued in response to
the Omicron variant of Covid-19 and the announcement by the Fed
concerning an earlier monetary policy tightening cycle than planned,
thus restricting capital flows and intensifying currency pressures in
developing countries, including Indonesia.
Bank Indonesia expects the domestic economic recovery process to endure and accelerate in 2022.
Economic growth is projected to improve in the fourth quarter of 2021
in line with increasing mobility after the Government successfully
introduced measures to break the domestic chain of Delta variant
transmission. Private consumption, investment and government
consumption are set to increase amid maintained export performance. In
addition, economic performance is also supported by the major economic
sectors, including the manufacturing industry, trade and mining. As of
December 2021, several indicators confirmed the recovery is intact, such
as increasing community mobility in several regions, higher retail
sales, growing consumer confidence and an expansionary Manufacturing
PMI. Overall, economic growth in 2021 remains in line with Bank
Indonesia's projection, namely 3.2-4.0%. Economic gains in 2022 will
primarily stem from increasing private consumption, exports and fiscal
spending, which are in line with increasing mobility, broader economic
reopening and ongoing policy stimuli. Bank Indonesia, therefore,
projects stronger domestic economic growth in 2022 in the 4.7-5.5%
range.
Indonesia's Balance of Payments (BOP) remains solid.
Current account performance improved in the fourth quarter of 2021
given the ongoing goods trade surplus. The trade balance in November
2021 recorded a USD3.5 billion surplus, supported by strong exports of
major commodities, including coal, iron and steel as well as organic
chemicals. Meanwhile, foreign capital inflows to domestic financial
markets recorded a net outflow totalling USD2.3 billion in the period
from October to 14th December 2021. Notwithstanding, the
position of reserve assets at the end of 2021 increased to USD145.9
billion, equivalent to 8.3 months of imports or 8.1 months of imports
and servicing government external debt, which is well above the 3-month
international adequacy standard. Looking ahead, Bank Indonesia projects
a current account in the surplus 0.3% to deficit 0.5% of GDP range in
2021 and deficit 1.1-1.9% of GDP in 2022, thus supporting external
sector resilience in Indonesia.
In
response to external sector resilience and Bank Indonesia's
stabilisation measures, rupiah exchange rate movements remain under
control despite continued global financial market uncertainty. As of 15th
December 2021, the value of the rupiah depreciated slightly by 0.07%
(ptp) and 0.70% on average compared with the November 2021 level. The
weaker rupiah stems from foreign capital outflows despite a maintained
domestic supply of foreign exchange and the positive perception of
investors concerning the promising domestic economic outlook. Compared
with the level at the end of 2020, therefore, the rupiah has depreciated
by 1.97% (ytd), which is relatively lower than the depreciation
experienced in several other developing economies, namely India (3.93%
ytd), the Philippines (4.51% ytd) and Malaysia (4.94% ytd). Bank
Indonesia continues to strengthen rupiah exchange rate stabilisation
policy in line with the currency's fundamental value and market
mechanisms through effective monetary operations and adequate market
liquidity.
Inflation remains low, thereby reinforcing economic stability.
In November 2021, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded 0.37% (mtm)
inflation, thus bringing headline inflation to 1.30% (ytd) for the
year. Annually, CPI inflation stood at 1.75% (yoy), up from 1.66% (yoy)
in October 2021. Despite early signs of growing domestic demand, core
inflation remains low at 1.44% (yoy), supported by maintained supply,
exchange rate stability and anchored inflation expectations. Lower
volatile food inflation was recorded due to adequate supply, while
inflationary pressures on administered prices have intensified on rising
airfares in line with greater mobility. Inflation is projected,
therefore, below the lower bound of the 3.0%±1% target corridor in 2021
and within the target range in 2022. Bank Indonesia is firmly committed
to maintaining price stability and strengthening policy coordination
with the central and regional governments through national and regional
inflation control teams (TPI and TPID) to control headline inflation
within the target.
Liquidity
conditions remain very loose in line with Bank Indonesia's accommodative
monetary policy stance and the impact of synergy between Bank Indonesia
and the Government to support the national economic recovery.
Bank Indonesia has injected liquidity through quantitative easing (QE)
to the banking industry totalling Rp141.19 trillion in 2021 (as of 14th
December 2021). Bank Indonesia in 2021 has purchased SBN to fund the
2021 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) totalling Rp201.32
trillion, comprising: (i) Rp143.32 trillion through primary auction in
accordance with the Joint Decree (KB) issued by the Minister of Finance
and Governor of Bank Indonesia on 16th April 2020 and subsequently extended on 11th December 2020 until 31st
December 2021, and (ii) Rp58 trillion through private placement in
November 2021 to fund the health and humanitarian budgets for Covid-19
pandemic handling in accordance with the Joint Decree (KB) issued by the
Minister of Finance and Governor of Bank Indonesia on 23rd
August 2021. The expansive monetary policy stance supports very loose
liquidity conditions in the banking industry, as reflected in November
2021 by a high ratio of liquid assets to deposits of 34.24% and deposit
growth of 10.37% (yoy). Liquidity in the economy has also increased, as
indicated by narrow (M1) and broad (M2) money supply aggregates, which
grew 14.7% (yoy) and 11.0% (yoy) respectively in the reporting period,
primarily driven by outstanding loans disbursed by the banking industry
and fiscal expansion.
Bank
Indonesia's decision to maintain a low policy rate, coupled with very
loose liquidity conditions in the banking industry, have maintained a
lower lending rate trend. In the markets, the overnight
interbank rate and 1-month deposit rate have fallen 25bps and 145bps
respectively since November 2020 to 2.79% and 3.05% in November 2021.
In the credit market, the banking industry continues to lower prime
lending rates (PLR), accompanied by lower interest rates on new loans
across all bank groups, except regional government banks. Increasing
economic activity and public mobility have improved risk perception in
the banking industry, prompting low interest rates on new loans.
Notwithstanding, significantly smaller reductions in lending rates
compared to deposit rates have increased the spread between lending and
deposit rates and increased the net interest margin (NIM) in the banking
industry. Consequently, Bank Indonesia acknowledges adequate room for
the banking industry to continue lowering lending rates.
Financial system resilience is solid, accompanied by a gradual revival of the bank intermediation function.
The Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) in the banking industry remained high
in October 2021 at 25.30%, with persistently low NPL ratios of 3.22%
(gross) and 1.02% (nett). The bank intermediation function expanded
4.73% (yoy) in November 2021. Furthermore, the banking industry
confirmed broad-based credit growth across all loan types, including
working capital loans, investment loans and consumer loans, growing
5.38% (yoy), 4.30% (yoy) and 4.11% (yoy) respectively. By sector,
credit growth was also broad based across nearly all economic sectors
and MSMEs, indicating growing demand for loans in line with recovering
business activity. On the supply side, Bank Indonesia maintained a loose
macroprudential policy stance and the banking industry loosened lending
standards in line with lower risk perception. Furthermore, Bank
Indonesia will continue to strengthen policy synergy with the Government
and other financial sector authorities to revive bank lending to the
corporate sector, particularly on the demand side in line with
increasing economic activity.
Bank
Indonesia will continue to expand payment system digitalisation and
accelerate integration of the digital economy and finance ecosystem,
including financial and economic inclusion and reviving economic growth.
Digital economic and financial transactions continue to proliferate
given greater public acceptance and growing public preference towards
online retail as well as the expansion of digital payments and digital
banking. The value of e-money transactions increased 61.82% (yoy) to
Rp31.3 trillion in November 2021. Similarly, the value of digital
banking transactions increased 47.08% (yoy) to Rp3,877.3 trillion in the
same period and the value of payment transactions using ATM cards,
debit cards and credit cards grew 8.39% (yoy) to Rp674.9 trillion. Bank
Indonesia continues to maintain a reliable and seamless payment system,
while supporting government programs through coordination and
monitoring digitalisation trials for social aid program (bansos) 4.0, as
well as local government financial transactions and the
electronification of various transportation modes. In addition, Bank
Indonesia is poised to launch BI-FAST on 21st December 2021
as retail payments infrastructure operating in real time and 24/7. On
the cash side, currency in circulation in November 2021 grew 7.81% (yoy)
to reach Rp867.8 trillion. Bank Indonesia continues to digitalise
rupiah currency management, cash services in particular, to ensure safe
and convenient public services during the new normal era and to ensure
adequate cash availability in all regions of the archipelago.
Jakarta, 16th December 2021
Head of Communication Department
Erwin Haryono
Executive Director