No.24/108/DKomThe BI Board of Governors Meeting agreed on 18th and 19th
April 2022 to hold the BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate at 3.50%, while also
maintaining the Deposit Facility (DF) rates at 2.75% and Lending
Facility (LF) rates at 4.25%. The decision is consistent with
the need to maintain exchange rate stability and control inflation,
together with efforts to revive economic growth despite a build-up of
external pressure, particularly the geopolitical tensions between Russia
and Ukraine as well as sooner-than-expected monetary policy
normalisation in advanced economies. Bank Indonesia continues to
optimise its policy mix strategy to maintain stability and safeguard
economic recovery momentum through the following policy measures:
- Strengthening exchange rate policy to maintain rupiah stability in line with market mechanisms and economic fundamentals.
- Maintaining
an accommodative macroprudential policy stance by holding: (i) the
Countercyclical Capital Buffer (CCyB) at 0%, (ii) Macroprudential
Intermediation Ratio (MIR) in the 84-94% range, (iii) Macroprudential
Liquidity Buffer (MPLB) at 6% with 6% repo flexibility and the Sharia
Macroprudential Liquidity Buffer at 4.5% with 4.5% repo flexibility.
- Maintaining
prime lending rate transparency in the banking industry with a focus on
sources of operating income in the banking industry (Appendix).
- Ensuring
adequate availability of currency fit for circulation, maintaining
seamless currency distribution and prime cash services, while preparing
BI-FAST implementation during the holy fasting month of Ramadan and
Eid-ul-Fitr 1443H.
- Raising the maximum deposit limit for
registered electronic money from Rp10 million to Rp20 million and the
monthly transaction limit from Rp20 million to Rp40 million, effective
from 1st July 2022.
- Strengthening international
policy by expanding cooperation with other central banks and
international organisations, promoting trade and investment in
conjunction with the relevant institutions as well as ensuring the
success of the six priority agendas in the Finance Track of Indonesia's
G20 Presidency in 2022 in conjunction with the Ministry of Finance.
Bank
Indonesia also remains committed to strengthening policy synergy with
the Government and Financial System Stability Committee to control
inflation, maintain monetary and financial system stability as well as
revive lending to the corporate sector and other priority sectors to
foster economic growth, stimulate exports and increase economic and
financial inclusion.
The
global economic recovery is expected to endure, yet at a slower pace
than previously projected, accompanied by persistently elevated global
financial market uncertainty. Ongoing geopolitical tensions
between Russia and Ukraine are impacting world trade, raising
international commodity prices and exacerbating global financial market
uncertainty despite a flattening of the Covid-19 curve. Economic growth
projections have been downgraded in several jurisdictions, including
Europe, the United States, Japan, China and India. Similarly, Bank
Indonesia has revised its global economic growth projection for 2022
down to 3.5% from 4.4%. Lower world trade volume is anticipated in
response to global economic moderation and ongoing supply chain
disruptions. International commodity prices are rising, including
energy, food and metal prices, thus intensifying inflationary pressures
globally. Elevated global financial market uncertainty persists given
worsening geopolitical tensions amid faster monetary policy
normalisation in several advanced economies, including the US, to
control escalating inflationary pressures. Such conditions have
impacted the outlook for foreign capital flows, particularly portfolio
investment, and increased currency pressures in developing economies,
including Indonesia.
At home, greater public mobility is expected to drive the domestic economic recovery.
Economic gains continued in the first quarter of 2022, supported by
higher consumption, non-building investment and export performance in
line with increasing public mobility and improving economic activity.
Several early indicators in March 2022, namely retail sales, consumer
expectations and manufacturing PMI, confirmed the ongoing domestic
economic recovery. Furthermore, economic growth is also supported by
strong sectoral performance, including the manufacturing industry,
trade, transportation and storage as well as information and
communication. Spatially, economic gains are primarily supported by
regional growth that is accelerating in the Java and Balinusra regions,
accompanied by solid economic performance in Sulawesi-Maluku-Papua
(Sulampua), Sumatra and Kalimantan. Moving forward, economic
performance will be impacted by restrained export volume given lower
global economic growth and world trade volume as a corollary of the
Russia-Ukraine conflict. Domestic demand will also be affected by muted
export volume as well as higher global energy and food prices.
Consequently, Bank Indonesia projects national economic growth for 2022
in the 4.5-5.3% range, down slightly from 4.7-5.5% previously.
Indonesia's Balance of Payments (BOP) is forecast to remain solid, thereby supporting external sector resilience.
A low and manageable current account deficit is predicted for the first
quarter of 2022, supported by a USD9.3 billion trade surplus. The
positive trade balance is underpinned by a large non-oil and gas trade
surplus, primarily stemming from a high export value due to
international commodity prices, including coal, iron and steel as well
as metalliferous ores, despite a growing oil and gas trade deficit.
Meanwhile, foreign capital flows, which recorded a net outflow of USD1.8
billion in the first quarter of 2022, re-established a net inflow at
the beginning of the second quarter of 2022, totalling USD0.8 billion as
of 14th April 2022. The position of reserve assets at the
end of March 2022 stood at USD139.1 billion, equivalent to 7.2 months of
imports or 7.0 months of imports and servicing government external
debt, which is well above the 3-month international adequacy standard.
Moving forward, high international commodity prices will boost export
value in 2022, thus reducing the current account deficit, which Bank
Indonesia now projects at 0.5-1.3% of GDP, compared with the previous
projection of 1.1-1.9% of GDP. In the same period, the capital and
financial account is expected to maintain a surplus, primarily in the
form of foreign direct investment (FDI) in line with a domestic climate
conducive to investment. Overall, Indonesia is expected to sustain a
positive balance of payments, thereby supporting external sector
resilience.
Rupiah exchange rate stability has been maintained despite persistent global financial market uncertainty.
Rupiah stability throughout April 2022 was supported by adequate
domestic supply of foreign exchange, foreign capital inflows and
positive perception surrounding Indonesia's economic outlook despite
ongoing global financial market uncertainty. As of 18th
April 2022, the rupiah depreciated by just 0.70% on the level recorded
at the end of 2021, comparatively less than the currency depreciation
experienced in several other developing economies, such as Thailand
(0.77%), Malaysia (2.10%) and the Philippines (2.45%). Moving forward,
the value of the rupiah is expected to remain stable in line with solid
economic fundamentals in Indonesia, particularly the lower current
account deficit. Furthermore, Bank Indonesia will continue to
strengthen rupiah exchange rate stabilisation policy in line with market
mechanisms and economic fundamentals.
Inflation remains under control and continues to support economic stability.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in March 2022 recorded 0.66% (mtm)
inflation. Annually, CPI inflation in March 2022 stood at 2.64% (yoy),
up from 2.06% (yoy) the month earlier. Core inflation remains under
control amid early signs of growing domestic demand, maintained exchange
rate stability and policy consistency by Bank Indonesia to anchor
inflation expectations. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures on volatile
food have increased due to soaring prices of cooking oil after an
adjustment to the maximum retail price. Administered prices (AP)
inflation has been affected by household fuel and petroleum prices after
the Government adjusted non-subsidised LPG and fuel prices, coupled
with higher airfares on the back of increasing community mobility.
Inflation in 2022 is predicted to remain under control and within the
3.0%±1% target corridor in line with adequate supply to meet increasing
demand, anchored inflation expectations, rupiah exchange rate stability
as well as the optimal response implemented by Bank Indonesia and the
Government. Notwithstanding, Bank Indonesia will remain vigilant of the
inflation risks, particularly the impact of rising global energy and
food prices. Bank Indonesia also remains firmly committed to
maintaining price stability and strengthening policy coordination with
the central and regional governments through the national and regional
inflation control teams (TPIP and TPID) to control CPI inflation within
the target. Coordination with the Government has recently been
strengthened to safeguard price stability during the holy fasting month
of Ramadan and Eid-ul-Fitr 1443H.
Bank
Indonesia continues to normalise liquidity policy by incrementally
raising rupiah reserve requirements in line with the banking industry's
ability to maintain adequate liquidity. The first stage of increasing the rupiah reserve requirement, coupled with the Reserve Requirement (RR) incentive since 1st
March 2022, has not reduced the banking industry's ability to disburse
loans/financing to the corporate sector or participate in SBN purchases
to finance the State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN). In March
2022, the ratio of liquid assets to deposits remained high at 32.11%,
despite retreating from 32.72% one month earlier, with deposit growth
recorded at 9.92% (yoy). Meanwhile, through fiscal-monetary
coordination in accordance with the Joint Decree of the Minister of
Finance and Governor of Bank Indonesia, effective until 31st
December 2022, Bank Indonesia has continued to purchase SBN in the
primary market to fund the national economic recovery as part of the
State Budget in 2022 totalling Rp17.81 trillion (as of 14th April
2022) via primary auction, greenshoe options and private placement. SBN
purchases by Bank Indonesia take into careful consideration SBN market
conditions and the impact on liquidity in the economy. In March 2022,
liquidity in the economy remained ample, as reflected by narrow money
(M1) and broad money (M2) aggregates, which grew 18.68% (yoy) and 13.27%
(yoy) respectively.
A
consistently low policy rate and ample liquidity in the banking system
continue to edge down lending rates in the banking industry, though by
smaller increments. In the markets, the IndONIA rate was
stable in March 2022 at 2.79% compared with conditions in March 2021,
while the 1-month deposit rate fell 91bps since March 2021 to 2.85% in
March 2022. In the credit market, the banking industry continues to
lower lending rates on new loans, falling 17bps (yoy) in the same
period, in line with decreasing prime lending rates (PLR) and improving
risk perception as economic activity continues to recover. Bank
Indonesia still acknowledges an opportunity for the banking industry to
increase lending/financing, including through lower lending rates, to
hasten the national economic recovery.
Financial system resilience remains solid, accompanied by a gradual revival of the bank intermediation function.
The Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) in the banking industry remained high
in February 2022 at 25.85%, with persistently low NPL ratios of 3.08%
(gross) and 0.87% (nett). Bank intermediation continued to improve in
March 2022, with credit growth accelerating to 6.65% (yoy), affecting
various bank groups, loan segments and economic sectors, including
priority sectors, as corporate and household activity gained recovery
momentum. Corporate performance is improving, as reflected by stronger
sales, capital expenditure and repayment capacity. On the supply side,
the banking industry continues to relax lending standards in line with
lower credit risk perception. In addition, MSME loan growth increased
to 14.98% (yoy) in March 2022, primarily driven by loans extended to
micro and small enterprises. Credit and deposit growth in 2022,
therefore, remain in line with previous projections, namely 6.0-8.0% and
7.0-9.0% respectively.
Bank
Indonesia will continue strengthening a fast, convenient, affordable,
secure and reliable as well as inclusive payment system to boost
economic growth. Digital economic and financial transactions
are developing rapidly in line with greater public acceptance and
growing public preference towards online retail as well as the expansion
and convenience of digital payments and digital banking. On the
cashless side, the value of electronic money transactions grew 42.06%
(yoy) in the first quarter of 2022, with 18.03% (yoy) projected for 2022
overall to reach Rp360 trillion. The value of digital banking
transactions increased 34.90% (yoy) in the first quarter of 2022, with
26.72% (yoy) projected for 2022 overall to reach Rp51,729 trillion.
Bank Indonesia continues to foster payment system innovation, including
to support government programs and expedite the national economic
recovery, while accelerating an inclusive and efficient digital economy
and finance through cashless payment system policy. Bank Indonesia is
also expanding BI-FAST services via mobile banking and increasing
communication with the public and relevant institutions. Synergy with
the Government is constantly strengthened to accelerate digitalisation
of the payments space by expanding electronification of social aid
program (bansos) disbursements, regional government transactions and
various transportation modes. In terms of cash, currency in circulation
expanded 13.58% (yoy) in the first quarter of 2022. Furthermore, Bank
Indonesia is strengthening public cash services through digitalisation
of mobile cash services (PINTAR), maintaining currency availability and
increasing the provision of currency by Rp27.4 trillion to a total of
Rp202.7 trillion during Ramadan and Eid-ul-Fitr 1443H, while also
strengthening institutional cooperation to ensure seamless currency
distribution throughout the territory of the Republic of Indonesia.
Jakarta, 19th April 2022
Head of Communication Department
Erwin Haryono
Executive Director