No. 26/249/DKom
According to the latest Retail Sales Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia, retail sales are expected to continue growing in October 2024. This is reflected by 1.0% (yoy) growth in the Real Sales Index (RSI) to a level of 209.5. Retailers predict sales to be driven by higher retail sales of Cultural and Recreational Goods, Parts and Accessories, as well as Clothing. On a monthly basis, retail sales are forecast to improve despite experiencing a shallower 0.5% (mtm) contraction. Respondents anticipate the improvement to stem from higher sales of Clothing, Other Household Equipment, as well as Parts and Accessories in response to seamless distribution.
The RSI maintained growth in September 2024. The RSI was recorded at 210.6, with growth moderating to 4.8% (yoy) in the reporting period from 5.8% (yoy) in August 2024. The main contributors to growth were increasing sales of Automotive Fuel as well as Parts and Accessories. On a monthly basis, retailers confirmed a 2.5% (mtm) sales contraction in September 2024 after expanding 1.7% (mtm) the month earlier. Lower monthly retail sales were primarily attributable to Clothing, Other Household Equipment, as well as Food, Beverages, and Tobacco as demand declined given the discontinuation of various discount programs to commemorate Independence Day celebrations for the Republic of Indonesia.
In terms of prices, respondents predict a build-up of inflationary pressures in the next 3 and 6 months (December 2024 and March 2025). This was reflected by increases in the Price Expectation Index (PEI) in December 2024 and March 2025, which were recorded at 152.6 and 169.4, respectively, up from 134.3 and 155.9 in the previous period. Respondents expect inflationary pressures to intensify on the back of higher demand during the upcoming Christmas and New Year festive period in December 2024 and the holy month of Ramadan in March 2025.
More information concerning the Retail Sales Survey is accessible via the official Bank Indonesia website.
Jakarta 12th November 2024
Communication Department
Ramdan Denny Prakoso
Executive Director
