BEMP Volume 12 Number 4, April 2010 - Bank Sentral Republik Indonesia
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December 13, 2019

QUARTERLY ANALYSIS I - 2010

The process of strengthening the domestic economy was continually supported by the conducive global economic performance. Indonesia's economic activities showed a significant increase in the fourth quarter of 2009. In that quarter, the Indonesian economy grew by 5.4% (yoy), so that in general, the economy grew by 4.5% (yoy) in 2009. These economic conditions continued to show the optimistic atmosphere that support better economic prospects than previously thought. The Indonesian economy in 2010 was expected to reach 5.5% -6.0% and in 2011 reached 6.0% -6.5%. Price stability was still maintained, as reflected in lower CPI growth during the first quarter of 2010. This was in line with the estimates of significant inflationary pressures, which will not appear until at least the first semester of 2010. For the entire year, CPI inflation in 2010 was targeted at the range of 5% ± 1% .....

THE IMPACT OF FISCAL POLICY TOWARD ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND POVERTY RATE IN INDONESIA
By : Indra Maipita, Dan Jantan, Nor Azam Abdul Razak

Abstract

The government is continuously formulating some policies in order to boast economic growth and downsize poverty rate. However, the government is facing some obstacles such as an increasingly in budget deficit which is potentially impacting to the determining of priority scale as well as the pro and contra within it. Based on that consideration, economic policy is needed to be revised and redesigned in order to meet the need of pro growth, pro job, and pro poor. Generally, this research aims to examine the impact of an expansion and contraction of fiscal policy measures on Indonesia economic performance. For the purpose of this study, the change of macro economic indicators, economic sector performance, and the change of poverty and income distribution are examined using the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. In order to evaluate the disparity of income distribution, beta distribution function is used which is adopted from Decaluwe, et al. (1999). This study employs Foster, Greer, and Thorbecke (F-G-T) and Cockburn (2001) methods to evaluate poverty (poverty incidence) on each household group. The results of this study show that the impact of an increase in subsidy is more favourable than two others fiscal policy measures. Even though the policy of transfer income gives a positive impact for the upsizing of rural household income and the downsizing in poverty, but on the other hand it has negative impact on others household income which aggregately has a negative impact on the decreasing of GDP.

JEL Classification: I32, E62.
Keywords: fiscal policy, poverty, income distribution

INVESTMENT DECISION AND FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS:EMPIRICAL STUDY ON INDONESIAN STOCK EXCHANGE*
By : Riskin Hidayat

Abstract

This research aims to test the sensitivity level of liquidity and invesment opportunity to invesment decision between non-financially constrained and financially constrained firms. Sample in this research is the firm of non finance which enlist in Indonesia Stock Exchange from period 2003 to 2007, obtained sample 136 firms with 680 observations. Result of research refer that liquidity and investment opportunity have an influence on positive to investment decision. Liquidity is more sensitive to investment decision for financially constrained firms. Investment opportunity is more  sensitive to investment decision for non financially constrained.

JEL Classification: E22, G32, O16.
Key words: Investment decision, liquidity, financially constraint.

CO-MOVEMENT 4 PERIOD ASEAN CURRENCY 1997-2005 A THEORY APPLICATION NAMELY OPTIMAL CURRENCY AREA USING VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL
By : Moch. Doddy Ariefianto and Perry Warjiyo

Abstract

Starting from the Optimum Currency Area (OCA), this paper utilize the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to identify the dynamic short term and the long term co-movement between the ASEAN 4 currencies, including their existing fundamental mechanism. There are at least 3 important findings, (i)the co-movement between the ASEAN 4 currencies is not proved empirically, (ii) the theory of OCA does not robust in explaining the co-movement pattern in ASEAN, and (iii) the existance of OCA is a global phenomena, indicated from the significance of Yen currency on the ASEAN 4. These findings led to a conclusion of this paper that the ongoing economic integration as well as the financial one in ASEAN are not enough to form a unified monetary arrangement nor a common currency in this region.

JEL Classification : F02, F36, F33, C32
Keywords : Co-Movement, Optimum Currency Area, Vector Error Correction Model.

INFLUENCE ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL VALUES ON THE NUMBER OF ISLAMIC MONEY DEMAND IN INDONESIA
By : Daisy Ebrinda Gustiani, Ascarya, Jaenal Effendi

Abstract

As one of the existing instruments in the economic system of Islam, Zakat Becomes Important to Investigate its influence in the Formulation of monetary policy in Indonesia, especially relating to the amount of money. This paper analyzes whether Zakat will of affect, the money demand of Islam in Indonesia, by applying the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) on monthly data During 2001 to 2007. This paper derives Trust interesting results on both conventional and Islamic money demand in Indonesia. In general, the result confirms the Domination of conventional economic system, one relative to the Islamic (Sharia), while the social value does not significantly affect the money demand in Indonesia.

JEL Classification: C32, E41, P52
Keywords: Money demand, social values, Islam, the VAR / VECM



 

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