ANALISA TRIWULAN IV - 2011

Rapat Dewan Gubernur (RDG) Bank Indonesia pada hari ini memutuskan untuk mempertahankan BI Rate pada level 6,0%. Keputusan tersebut didasarkan pada evaluasi menyeluruh terhadap kinerja perekonomian terkini, beberapa faktor risiko yang masih dihadapi, dan prospek ekonomi ke depan. Dewan Gubernur memandang level BI Rate saat ini masih konsisten dengan pencapaian sasaran inflasi ke depan, dan tetap kondusif untuk menjaga stabilitas keuangan serta mengurangi dampak memburuknya prospek ekonomi global terhadap perekonomian Indonesia. Evaluasi terhadap kinerja dan prospek perekonomian secara umum menunjukkan bahwa perekonomian domestik masih tetap kuat dengan stabilitas yang tetap terjaga. Ke depan, Dewan Gubernur akan terus mencermati risiko memburuknya ekonomi global dan akan terus menjaga stabilitas makroekonomi dan sistem keuangan serta memberikan stimulus untuk perekonomian domestik. Dewan Gubernur menegaskan bahwa penerapan bauran kebijakan moneter dan makroprudensial yang bersifat counter-cyclical sangat diperlukan dalam pengelolaan makroekonomi secara keseluruhan serta untuk membawa inflasi pada sasaran yang ditetapkan, yaitu 4,5%±1% pada tahun 2012 dan 2013......

MARKET POWER PERBANKAN INDONESIA
Oleh : Andi Fahmi Lubis

Abstract

This study was aimed to estimate the degree of market power exercised by commercial banks in credit market in Indonesia. Model used to answered this study's objective was Bresnahan-Lau oligopoly model that using structural equations to estimate the degree of market power.This model was using very different approach than Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) paradigm that commonly used in market power studies.Without using actual cost data and accounting profit, Bresnahan-Lau model was able to estimate directly the degree of market power from structural equations. The main result of this study was the degree of market power exercised by commercial banks in credit market relatively low; in other words the degree of competition in credit market in Indonesia was quite high.

Keywords: market power, oligopoly, Bresnahan-Lau, structure, performance, conduct, SCP.
JEL Classification : L13, G21

DAMPAK PERSISTENSI EKSES LIKUIDITAS TERHADAP KEBIJAKAN MONETER
Oleh : M. Barik Bathaluddin, Nur M. Adhi Purwanto, Wahyu Ari Wibowo

Abstract

This paper analyzes the excess liquidity especially on banking industry and its impact on monetary policy on Indonesia. We firstly investigate the determinants of bank behavior on their favor for excess liquidity both for precautionary motive and involuntary, and furthermore determine the threshold between low and high excess liquidity regimes. On the next step, this paper evaluates the impact of excess liquidity on monetary policy on the two regimes. Thefirst result shows that the excess liquidity on bank with their precautionary motive is significantly determined by the volatility of money demand, volatility of economic growth, the bank cost of the bank, and also the lag of excess liquidity, which conform its persistence. Secondly, using the Threshold-VAR approach, this paper shows the switching regime occurs in 2005 from low to high excess liquidity. Lastly, the excess liquidity reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy on controlling inflation.

Keywords: Excess liquidity, Threshold VAR, monetary policy transmission mechanism.
JEL Classification: B23, E5

ALUR TRANSMISI DAN EFEKTIFITAS KEBIJAKAN MONETER GANDA DI INDONESIA
Oleh : Ascarya

Abstract

This study aims to investigate transmission mechanism of dual monetary system from conventional and Islamic policy rates to inflation and output using Granger and VAR methods on monthly Indonesian banking data form January 2003 to December 2009. The result shows that conventional transmission mechanismsfrom conventional policy rate are all linked tooutput and inflation, while Islamic policy rate are not linked to output and inflation. In addition, the interest rate, credit and conventional interbank rate shocks give negative and permanent impacts to inflation and output, while PLS, financing and Islamic interbank PLS, as well as SBIS (Central Bank Shariah Certificate) as Islamic policy rate shocks give positive and permanent impacts to inflation and output. SBI (Central Bank Certificate) as conventional policy givespositive impact to inflation and negative impact to output.

Keywords: Monetary transmission mechanism, Interest rate pass through, Conventional Banking, Islamic Banking
JEL Classification: E43, E52, G21, G28 

ANALISA TINGKAT EFISIENSI SEKTORAL DAN RESPON KEBIJAKAN EKONOMI SEKTORAL DI DAERAH
Oleh : M. Abdul Majid Ikram, Andry Prasmuko, Donni Fajar Anugerah, Ina Nurmalia Kurniati

Abstract

This paper analyzes the contributon of primary input; capital anda labor, on sectoral performance in Indonesia. The analysis cover sall sectors both in national and regional level, and also the dynamic of input efficiency across period. Using stochastic frontier production function approach, this paper found the aggregate share of capital is 0.20 and 0.34 for labor; conforming the dominance of labor. The highest three technical efficiency is Mining sector (88.65%), Manufacture (70.47%) and Financial (65.93%), while the lowest one is Electric, Gas and Water (25.38%).

Keywords: efficiency, stochastic frontier, productivity, Indonesia.
JEL Classification: D24, J24, O18