ANALISIS TRIWULAN III - 2010
Akselerasi pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia masih berlanjut dan stabilitas makro tetap terjaga. Akselerasi pertumbuhan ekonomi tersebut didorong oleh peningkatan konsumsi dan ekspor serta investasi. Konsumsi meningkat dipicu oleh optimisme keyakinan konsumen tersedianya sumber pembiayaan konsumsi dan rendahnya harga impor. Sementara itu, kegiatan ekspor yang membaik terutama didorong masih kuatnya permintaan dari China dan India.Peningkatan permintaan domestik dan internasional ini berdampak pada meningkatnya pertumbuhan investasi.Perekonomian Indonesia di tahun 2010 diperkirakan tumbuh 6,0%-6,3% dan pada tahun 2011 mencapai kisaran 6,0%-6,5%. Dari sisi harga, inflasi masih mencatatpeningkatan yang cukup tinggi pada triwulan III-2010. Peningkatan harga yang terjadi terutamamasih bersumber dari kelompok volatile food, yaitu aneka bumbu dan sayuran. Sementara itu,tekanan inflasi kelompok inti dan administered prices masih pada tingkat yang rendah. BankIndonesia terus mencermati potensi tekanan inflasi tersebut dan meningkatkan koordinasikebijakan bersama Pemerintah baik di tingkat pusat maupun daerah, serta akan melakukanrespons dengan bauran kebijakan yang diperlukan agar inflasi tetap berada pada sasaran yang ditetapkan, yaitu 5%±1% pada tahun 2010....
DINAMIKA INDUSTRI MANUFAKTUR DAN RESPON TERHADAP SIKLUS BISNIS
Oleh : Yati Kurniati dan Yanfitri
The role of the manufacturing industry in the economy has expanded significantly from 19 percent in 1990 to 26 percent in 2009, while its labor absorption only increased from 10 percent to 12.2 percent.The cycle of the manufacturing industry has been in line with the economic growth. This study exploresthe implications of the firm-level heterogeneity over the business cycle. By using the panel multinomiallogit, it shows that firms with less capital and small size have greater probability to exit the industry during the boom/ bust period. Sensitivity of the company to changes in capital is greater during the boom period. Only highly productive firms enter and begin production during recessions. Companies with higher productivity rate also have greater probability to enter the market. In contrast, higher production cost and higher market concentration increase the probability for smaller companies to exit from the industry
JEL Classification: D24, L6, E32Keywords: Production, Cost, Capital and Total Factor Productivity, Industry Studies Manufacturing,Business Fluctuations/cycles
PERAN STIMULUS FISKAL DAN PELONGGARAN MONETER PADA PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA SELAMA KRISIS FINANSIAL GLOBAL : DENGAN PENDEKATAN FINANCIAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM
Oleh : Iskandar Simorangkir dan Justina Adamanti
Global financial crisis started in mid 2008 has reduced global economic growth, and many countrieseven experienced economic contraction. To deal with economic contraction, various economic policieshave been undertaken. Governments have increased fiscal stimulus through increasing expenditure and lowering tax while central banks have cut policy rates substantially. In some countries interest rates even reach zero or close to zero. Similar to many other countries, Indonesia has also undertaken expansionary policies, namely increasing fiscal stimulus and lowering interest rates. This paper examines the impacts of fiscal stimulus and interest rate cut on Indonesian economy using financial computable general equilibrium (FCGE) approach. The estimation results show a number of findings. First, the combination of fiscal expansion and monetary expansion boosts economic growth of Indonesia effectively. Relative to the effectiveness of fiscal expansion without monetary policy expansion or monetary expansion without fiscal expansion, the combination of those two policies is more effective. Second, looking into the components of GDP, the combination of fiscal and monetary expansion has a large multiplier effect, boosting aggregate demand through increasing consumption, investment, government expenditure, exports and imports. Meanwhile, from production side, the combination of fiscal and monetary expansion has positive effects on increasing production of all economic sectors. This effect comes from fiscal incentive (lower tax, lower import duties, etc) in increasing investment. Moreover, the increase in aggregate demand also encourages enterprises to increase their production. Third, institutionally fiscal stimulus and monetary easing has increased income and purchasing power of the poor and rich households in rural and urban area. This increase in turn results in higher all household consumption.
JEL Classification: D58, E12, E13, E52, E58, H25, H31, H53, H54Keywords: Fiscal stimulus, monetary easing, financial computable general equilibrium, global financial crisis.
PENERAPAN KRITERIA OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREA DAN VOLATILITASNYA: STUDI KASUS ASEAN-5+3
Oleh : Dimas Bagus Wiranata Kusuma dan Arief Dwi Putranto
This paper is aiming to elaborate the case of how exchange rate volatility (ERV), which is supposedlyconsidered to form optimum currency area (OCA), can be reduced in order justify the feasibility of theOCA idea within ASEAN5 plus three. Interestingly, the results provide some evidences that the AEAN5+3 are considered not really ready to form OCA. It corroborates the existing opinion that the different in economic structure and its policies over foreign environment are becoming some barriers and challenging area to synchronize in the following time. The positive impacts AS to ERV which are incurred in ASEAN5+3 economies indicate the existence of inappropriate condition to form OCA since there are no similar shocks across a monetary union»s participating countries. Under such condition, it would foster the costs of forgoing the exchange rate as a shock absorbing mechanism. It deserves to argue that those observed countries still are resisting their existing regime since they are till believing that they begin to establish the system of monetary which are able to absorb any possible shocks in regards of their SIZE. In sum, the ASEAN5+3 countries are considered to fulfilling the requirement to form currency optimum area which are able to main their stable currency.
JEL: D81, E52, F15, F36
Key words: Optimum Currency Area, a Single Currency, Exchange Rate Volatility, Stability 1
KEJAHATAN PERBANKAN DAN EFEKTIVITAS PENGAWASAN PERBANKAN: MENGGABUNGKAN TEORI PERMAINAN DAN PENDEKATAN ANALYTICAL NETWORK PROCESS
Oleh : Piter Abdullah
A failed bank can spark a deep financial crisis throughout the whole country when ironically it maysimply have been triggered by a banking crime perpetrated by an insider, i.e. the banker. Althoughbanking crimes may pose a significant threat to financial sector stability, the potential risk of internalfraud has, hitherto, not been taken into account in banking supervision processes. This paper analyzes the effectiveness of banking supervision to uncover potential risks of banking crimes by combining game theory and the analytical network process approach. In this paper, the author conducts two games with three players; the banker, the bank supervisor and the police. The banker has two strategies: to offend or not to offend. The bank supervisor has two choices: to supervise or not to supervise. The police can choose to enforce or not to enforce. In the first part, the effectiveness of bank supervision is analyzed theoretically using game theory. The effectiveness of banking supervision will depend on the behavior of each player as reflected in their decisions. Further analysis will confirm the previous result using an analytical network process. At this stage, the analytical network process is used to calculate the probability of each strategy being chosen by considering all criteria or sub criteria. Any decision made by one player will influence the other players in choosing their alternative strategies and vice versa.
JEL Classificiation: C78, E58
Keywords: Analytical Network Process, banking crimes, game theory.