QUARTERLY ANALYSIS IV - 2009

Indonesia's economy in 2009 shows a fairly strong resistance among the global economic crisis. This is reflected from the level of Indonesia economic growth, which up to Quarter III-2009 is still able to grow over 4%. For entire 2009, the Bank of Indonesia predicts that Indonesia's economy can grow 4.3%. In the future, for 2010 and 2011, Indonesia's economy is predicted to grow higher in accordance with better recovery level of the world economy and more conducive conditions of financial and banking markets, which are accompanied with the maintained condition of domestic fundamental. Indonesia's economy is estimated will grow around 5.0-5.5% in 2010 and become 6.0-6.5% in 2011.....

THE LABOR SHIFTING IN INDONESIAN LABOR MARKET
from : Meily Ika Permata, Yanfitri, Andry Prasmuko

Abstract

This paper analyzes the labor shifting phenomenon in Indonesian labor market. Labor shifting phenomenon in developing countries, including Indonesia, is considered to be the reason of stable
movement from the supply perspective. By using Sakernas data year 1998-2008, this paper analyzes the labor shifting phenomenon, both the direction of labor movement and the characteristics of the shifting labor. The main conclusions obtained in this research are, first, there is no structural break in Indonesian labor market. Second, although most of labors tend to remain in the same sector or intra-sector, the analysis shows there is tendency for the labor to move from non formal sectors especially to Agricultural and Trade sectors. Third, the model estimation result with a series of controlled category shows the biggest three probability of not shifting and remaining in the same sectors are in Electricity sector (70,15%), Financial sector (55,8%) and Mining sector (53,13%). On the other side, the biggest labor mobility opportunity to conduct shifting is on Industry sector (80.14%), Construction sector (64.3%), and Transportation sector (62.4%).

JEL classification: J23, J62, J64
Keywords: Demand for Labor, Job Mobility, Labor shifting, Unemployment.

EFFECTS OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE SUPPLY AND DEMAND DYNAMICS TO RUPIAH EXCHANGE RATE AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
from: Sugeng, M. Noor Nugroho, Ibrahim, Yanfitri

Abstract

This study examines the influence of forex demand and supply interaction on Rupiah»s exchange
rate. Estimation results show that the movement of rupiah is influenced by the forex supply and demand, where the foreign players are dominating. Furthermore, the demand and supply of foreign exchange is asymmetric. This paper also shows the impact of exchange rate movements on output is only in the short term with a more significant influence to the import, while the depreciation of Rupiah has a larger impact than its appreciation.

JEL Classification: E31, F31
Keywords: Foreign exchange, inflation, exchange rate.

DETERMINANT ANALYSIS OF SUPPLY CHANGE OF INDONESIA»S EXPORT PRODUCT
from: Sarwedi

Abstract

This study analyzes the effects of structural economic movement on the change of Indonesia»s
exports and examines the validity of the Iqnacy theory concerning structural economic movement in
relation to the changes of export composition. The study utilize an ordinary mechanism of WLS, namely the Wald model, The estimation resulted through the combination of ECM and WLS shows that the price of export goods/merchandises has a positive effect and is significant in the short-term period. Yet, over the longterm period, the increase in export commodity price causes the decrease in export volumes. Meanwhile, the relationship between export volume and inflation is not significant, either in the short-term or longterm. Foreign exchange interestingly has a positive and significant relationship with the export volume over a short-term period, but in the long-term it has a reverse effect, that is, it decreases export volume. Foreign investment has a positive and significant relationship with export volume in the long-term, the significance, however, weakens over the short-term period.
The structural economic movement has a positive and significant relationship over a short-term
period with export volume, but over long-term period the relationship is not statistically strong. Thus, the structural economic movement towards more on the growth of industry sector could stimulate the growth in export aggregately. This evidence provides further support on the Ignacy theory (1980) if it is applied on Indonesian international economy, especially for the period of 1983-1997.

JEL Classification: C32, F14, O24
Keyword: Weighted Least Square, Error Correction Model, Structural Economic Movement, Export.

THE GLOBAL CRISIS IMPACT ON INDONESIA REGIONAL ECONOMY
from: Andry Prasmuko, Donni Fajar Anugrah

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of global financial crisis to the Indonesia's economy by using the
simultaneous macro model approach. The analysis and the simulation show that the impact of the global financial crisis is dominantly distributed through the trade line, which decreases the regional output. Among the aggregate demand components, the movement of exchange rate has major effect on the exports and imports, whereas on consumption and investment, it gives relatively small effect. The impact of external shock, which causes the depreciation of Rupiah, is relatively small to the increase of inflation.

JEL classification : C32, E44
Keywords : Financial crisis, simultaneous model, Indonesia, IRIO.